ELES
NÃO ANDAM A DORMIR MAS TAMBÉM NÃO ESTÃO ACORDADOS QUALQUER DIA OBRIGAM O
PESSOAL A VER ISTO EM CENTO E TAL CANAIS ....E TAVA ELE ....DIZ O HOMO
DE ENDIREITA O RELVAS
vineri, 13 decembrie 2024
joi, 29 octombrie 2015
THE EURO OF THE RED QUEEN EFFECT NECESSITA DE CORRER MUITO PARA NÃO SAIR DO MESMO LUGAR FACE AO DÓLAR ,,,PORQUE TUDO NO MUNDO SE VENDE E COMPRA EM DÓLARES E A EUROPA E PORTUGAL DENTRO DELA SÃO IMPORTADORES NATOS DE MATÉRIAS PRIMAS E TRIGO AMERICANO E BIFES SUL-AMERICANOS....A BANCARROTA DO SUL EUROPEU E A DESVALORIZAÇÃO DO DÓLAR E DO EURO E DE TANTAS OUTRAS MOEDAS CONTINUAM À ESQUINA OR AROUND THE CORNER QUER GOVERNE KRISTINA KIRCHNER OU EVA PERÓN OU PINOCHET OU ALLENDE
E ISTO ACONTECE DESDE QUE O SÍLEX
ERA A MOEDA DE TROCA
OU O SAL ERA O SALARIUM
DESDE QUE EM 23 DE SETEMBRO DE 1543
OS PORTUGUESES COMEÇARAM A FAZER
COMÉRCIO COM OS TOYOTAS JAPONESES
AUFERIRAM LUCROS FABULOSOS
COM O CÂMBIO MONETÁRIO
TROCANDO A PRATA JAPONESA
POR OURO E SEDA CHINESA
ENTRE OUTRAS CHINESICES DE MENOS
VALIA COMO PORCELANAS E BAMBU
E MALAS DE CÂNFORA
MACAU SURGIU EM 1557 COMO PORTA
DE ENTRADA NO MERCADO CHINÊS
PORTO INTERNACIONAL
E ESCALA ENTRE A GRANDE MALACA
E O DAI NIPPON
E TÃO MAU FOI PARA O IMPÉRIO DO SOL
NASCENTE QUE EM 1639 POR ÉDITO
DO HIRODITO SAIKARU DA ALTURA
HANDA NAGAZOZA EXPULSOU OS
EMIGRANTES ILEGAIS PORTUGUESES
E ACABOU COM O SÉCULO CRISTÃO
E COM O GRANDE MERCADO PORTUGUÊS
DOS CÂMBIOS
QUE NOS FEZ GRANDES ENTRE OS
VENDEDORES
DE BUGIGANGAS EUROPEIAS
ERA A MOEDA DE TROCA
OU O SAL ERA O SALARIUM
DESDE QUE EM 23 DE SETEMBRO DE 1543
OS PORTUGUESES COMEÇARAM A FAZER
COMÉRCIO COM OS TOYOTAS JAPONESES
AUFERIRAM LUCROS FABULOSOS
COM O CÂMBIO MONETÁRIO
TROCANDO A PRATA JAPONESA
POR OURO E SEDA CHINESA
ENTRE OUTRAS CHINESICES DE MENOS
VALIA COMO PORCELANAS E BAMBU
E MALAS DE CÂNFORA
MACAU SURGIU EM 1557 COMO PORTA
DE ENTRADA NO MERCADO CHINÊS
PORTO INTERNACIONAL
E ESCALA ENTRE A GRANDE MALACA
E O DAI NIPPON
E TÃO MAU FOI PARA O IMPÉRIO DO SOL
NASCENTE QUE EM 1639 POR ÉDITO
DO HIRODITO SAIKARU DA ALTURA
HANDA NAGAZOZA EXPULSOU OS
EMIGRANTES ILEGAIS PORTUGUESES
E ACABOU COM O SÉCULO CRISTÃO
E COM O GRANDE MERCADO PORTUGUÊS
DOS CÂMBIOS
QUE NOS FEZ GRANDES ENTRE OS
VENDEDORES
DE BUGIGANGAS EUROPEIAS
duminică, 13 septembrie 2015
DA EMIGRAÇÃO EM EUROS E EM ESCUDOS A EMIGRAÇÃO E A IMIGRAÇÃO TÊM GRANDE SUSCEPTIBILIDADE ÀS OSCILAÇÕES CAMBIAIS E QUANDO CAVACUS I DITO O SILVANUS CAESAR DE TODA A HISPANIA DESVALORIZOU O SESTÉRCIO EM 25% CORRIA O ANO DO CALENDÁRIO JULIANO DE 92 OS BÁRBAROS COMEÇARAM A FAZER AS CONTAS E DESERTARAM NUM PAÍS DE NAZIS FELIZ ONDE O MAIOR TESOURO É UMA ÁRVORE DE PAZ QUE REBENTA AOS 10º FLORESCE AOS 19ºC E SÓ SE FECUNDA BEM AOS 21 GRAUS DE TERNURA E COMEÇA A MATURAR NOS FINOS E SAGRADOS ÓLEOS AOS 10 DO CELSIUS NUM OUTUBRO E NOVEMBRO PRECEDIDOS POR MESES SECOS É QUASE CERTO E SEGURO QUE O PREÇO DO AZEITE PRÁS ALMINHAS HÁ-DE SUBIR
ELES
NÃO ANDAM A DORMIR OU O QUE ELES QUEREM É TETA UMA VISÃO BIPOLAR DUM MUNDO CHEIO DE BOAS ORDENS E DE MUITAS DESORDENS
O DOUTOR RECEITA UM SÍRIO?
DUAS A TRÊS VEZES POR DIA PELO MENOS SEU NACIB ....
O DOUTOR RECEITA UM SÍRIO?
DUAS A TRÊS VEZES POR DIA PELO MENOS SEU NACIB ....
miercuri, 24 decembrie 2014
COMO GANHAR RUBLOS COM A GRAÇA DO ESPÍRITO SANTO E OUTROS POBREZINHOS É SIMPLEX BASTA JOGAR COM OS NÚMEROS QUE NÃO SEJAM PESSOAS
Quer Café COMPRE-O.....
Se entendeu coN partilhE NON....
sâmbătă, 15 martie 2014
THE FIDUCIA WAR'S ARE ON - UKRAINE ARE KAPPUT - LONG LIVE THE IMPERIAL RUBLE IN THE RUBBLE OR THE ROUBLE IN THE RABBLE
Saturday, March 15, 2014
The Finance Macro Canon
Stop me if you've heard this one before:
1. Inflation is caused by increases in the money supply. If the Fed expands the monetary base ("prints money"), the new money may sit for a while in the bank, but will eventually make its way into the broader economy, at which point it will cause inflation.
2. QE represents money-printing, so it will eventually cause inflation. In fact, it probably already is causing inflation - have you been to the store lately and seen the price of a gallon of milk? And don't you know that they changed the way they measure inflation, meaning it's much higher than the official numbers suggest?
3. Alternatively, money-printing might itself be defined as inflation.
4. Additionally, QE is a stealth bailout of big banks. This will increase their risk-taking via moral hazard and precipitate another financial crisis.
5. QE depresses interest rates, encouraging investors to "reach for yield" by investing in risky assets, increasing the likelihood of another financial crisis.
6. Government borrowing requires the Fed to buy bonds to hold down interest rates and keep the government from defaulting; this will cause/is causing/is defined as inflation.
7. Every bad effect of QE will also result from a long period of zero interest rates.
I have heard this basic story from many employees in the financial industry. I have heard it from a large number of finance writers, including some people I like and respect (but also including some who are shameless hucksters). I have heard it from undergrads at Stony Brook and Michigan. I see it on Twitter and on the blogs and on TV, and I hear it in Wall Street bars. I call it the Finance Macro Canon - the basic framework through which a big chunk of Wall Street sees the macroeconomy.
What I think about each of these belief items is not important (Just for the record, I think #4, 5, 6, and 7 very well might be true, #3 is goofy, #2 is utterly wrong, and #1 is one of the biggest mysteries of macroeconomics). The really interesting question is why the finance industry has become such a hive mind with regards to this worldview.
First of all, part of this canon defies the data - Japan's eternal zero interest rate policy didn't end deflation, nor did a dramatic expansion of its monetary base in the 2000s. And America's "money-printing" and ZIRP haven't done much to budge inflation. Second of all, the canon goes against the bets of the finance industry itself - inflation expectations, as measured by TIPS breakevens, are around 2%, even in the long term.
This, I think, is why the Shadowstats BS - or its cousin, the "have you seen the price of a gallon of milk lately" BS - is so crucial to the Finance Macro Canon (FMC). Humans have cognitive dissonance - it's difficult for us to take actions that don't jive with our beliefs. So subscribers to the FMC have to tell themselves that CPI isn't actually real inflation - that's the only way to reconcile their bet on low CPI with their belief in the theory that QE and ZIRP cause inflation.
But why patch up the FMC with obvious BS like Shadowstats? Why not just alter it to include the possibility that QE and ZIRP don't always cause inflation, even in the long term? In other words, why is the Finance Macro Canon such a canon in the first place?
Here are a few candidate hypotheses, arranged from (in my opinion) the most rational to the least:
1. History. Throughout history, currency debasements have often resulted in inflation. In the 70s, easy monetary policy (money printing) did indeed seem to result in high inflation in the U.S. And when Volcker tightened policy, inflation fell. Why should this time be different?
2. The lingering influence of Milton Friedman and the monetarists. Friedman told us that easy monetary policy causes inflation. His insights form the core of the New Keynesian research program that has come to more-or-less dominate central bank thinking.
3. The lingering influence of the Austrians. Austrians traditionally are suspicious of big banks, and suspicious of government meddling in the economy. Peter Schiff calls himself an Austrian, and he's out there spouting this canon daily, and lots of people listen to him.
4. Motivated reasoning. Most of the retail clients of the finance industry - and the customers of financial media - are older high net worth individuals who stand to benefit both from higher interest rates and from lower inflation. It might be in the interests of financial industry employees and financial media people to express a worldview where the policy conclusion is exactly what their clients and customers would like, while simultaneously placing bets against this worldview.
5. Need for the Illusion of Knowledge. A world in which printing money doesn't have any clear link to inflation is a weird world indeed. Instead of casting themselves adrift on the sea of existential uncertainty, finance industry and media people might subconsciously choose to cling to the shores of certitude.
So how does one extract an individual human mind from this hive mind? That is always a tricky undertaking. But I've found two things that seem to have an effect:
Method 1: Introduce them to MMT. MMT is a great halfway house for recovering Austrians.
Method 2: Introduce them to the research of Steve Williamson. Williamson is an example of a guy who changed his mind about the most likely effect of QE, after observing its real effects.
So far, these are the only things I've found that work. If you have any other ideas, please share. Every mind we reclaim from the hive is another blow struck for rationalism, individuality, and optimal monetary policy (whatever that is).
duminică, 26 ianuarie 2014
HAPPY NEW YEAR - 1914 -2014 THAT'S HUNDRED YEARS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC ECO-COMIC WAR
Do cry for me Argentina? Peso plunges
January 24, 2014: 12:46 PM ET
Argentina's currency has tanked in recent days after the government devalued the peso.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The Argentinian peso has plunged roughly 13% in the past two days, stoking fears of another financial meltdown in a nation that experienced an economic collapse only a little more than a decade ago.
Argentina's government devalued the currency Thursday in a bid to jump start growth. The resulting drop in the peso was the worst since 2002 -- when Argentina defaulted on its debt.The currency move was a shift for Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, a populist who had previously vowed not to devalue the peso. It also raised concerns about Argentina's dwindling dollar reserves.
The sell-off in the peso came as other emerging market currencies, such as Turkey's lira and India's rupee, have gotten hammered due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will pull back on propping up their own economies.
As forecasts for growth in developed nations become rosier there isn't as great a need for stimulus from these central banks, said Steven Englander, head of foreign exchange strategy at Citigroup.
Related: Investors go globetrotting for bargains
That could lead to higher bond yields in the developed markets and stronger currencies as well. But emerging markets have come to rely on the Fed, BoE and BoJ keeping exchange rates low so they can borrow aggressively to fund their economies.
To that end, many emerging markets performed well in the wake of the financial crisis as growth in developed nations remained sluggish.
Argentina, for its part, grew quickly following its deep recession of the early 2000s that began when it stopped paying its creditors. But it never fully recovered its reputation in the international markets.
And the election of Kirchner in 2010 did little to boost confidence. Kirchner's economic platform is predicated on selling the country's natural resources to spend heavily at home.
But many economists say her policies have dampened free-market competition with rising debt and tepid growth.
The Argentine government also hasn't opened up its books to the International Monetary Fund in years, creating tension with the international lender.
Related: Related: IMF warns of deflation risk
Speaking to CNN's Richard Quest from the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said her organization would like to learn more about Argentina's finances.
"We would like to go under the skin of any economy in the IMF," she said, adding that a call from the Argentinean government "would be more than welcome."
But there's no question that the situation in Argentina is worrisome.
The Global X FTSE Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT), which invests in key Argentine companies, has plummeted nearly 9% this week.
Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics, said in a note Thursday that Argentina's high debt, low currency reserves, and general economic mismanagement are all cause for concern.
"Where we go from here is difficult to say," he said. "Our forecast that the economy would slide into recession this year looked bold a few months ago -- all of a sudden that doesn't seem so implausible."
Do cry for me Argentina? Peso plunges
January 24, 2014: 12:46 PM ET
Argentina's currency has tanked in recent days after the government devalued the peso.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The Argentinian peso has plunged roughly 13% in the past two days, stoking fears of another financial meltdown in a nation that experienced an economic collapse only a little more than a decade ago.
Argentina's government devalued the currency Thursday in a bid to jump start growth. The resulting drop in the peso was the worst since 2002 -- when Argentina defaulted on its debt.The currency move was a shift for Argentine President Cristina Kirchner, a populist who had previously vowed not to devalue the peso. It also raised concerns about Argentina's dwindling dollar reserves.
The sell-off in the peso came as other emerging market currencies, such as Turkey's lira and India's rupee, have gotten hammered due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will pull back on propping up their own economies.
As forecasts for growth in developed nations become rosier there isn't as great a need for stimulus from these central banks, said Steven Englander, head of foreign exchange strategy at Citigroup.
Related: Investors go globetrotting for bargains
That could lead to higher bond yields in the developed markets and stronger currencies as well. But emerging markets have come to rely on the Fed, BoE and BoJ keeping exchange rates low so they can borrow aggressively to fund their economies.
To that end, many emerging markets performed well in the wake of the financial crisis as growth in developed nations remained sluggish.
Argentina, for its part, grew quickly following its deep recession of the early 2000s that began when it stopped paying its creditors. But it never fully recovered its reputation in the international markets.
And the election of Kirchner in 2010 did little to boost confidence. Kirchner's economic platform is predicated on selling the country's natural resources to spend heavily at home.
But many economists say her policies have dampened free-market competition with rising debt and tepid growth.
The Argentine government also hasn't opened up its books to the International Monetary Fund in years, creating tension with the international lender.
Related: Related: IMF warns of deflation risk
Speaking to CNN's Richard Quest from the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said her organization would like to learn more about Argentina's finances.
"We would like to go under the skin of any economy in the IMF," she said, adding that a call from the Argentinean government "would be more than welcome."
But there's no question that the situation in Argentina is worrisome.
The Global X FTSE Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT), which invests in key Argentine companies, has plummeted nearly 9% this week.
Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics, said in a note Thursday that Argentina's high debt, low currency reserves, and general economic mismanagement are all cause for concern.
"Where we go from here is difficult to say," he said. "Our forecast that the economy would slide into recession this year looked bold a few months ago -- all of a sudden that doesn't seem so implausible."
sâmbătă, 28 decembrie 2013
O EURRO ESSA MOEDA MAIS VIRTUAL QUE REAL....NA VERDADE É UMA MOEDA MAIS REPUBLICANA QUE MONÁRQUICA E MAIS DO QUE ANÁRQUICA
ENTRE 1999 E 2001 IMPRIMIRAM-SE 13 MIL MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE EURO
COM UM VALOR TOTAL DE 400 MIL MILHÕES DE PAPEL CIRCULANTE
QUE FORAM ENTRANDO NO SISTEMA ATÉ AO EURRO 2004
HOJE CIRCULAM OU ANDAM NOS COFRES DE DITADURAS VÁRIAS
840 MIL MILHÕES EM NOTAS
É OBRA
Chart 1
Source: ECB.
Chart 2
Source: ECB.
The charts on the right show the change in the total value
and number of euro banknotes in circulation between 2002 and end-2010.
Chart 1 displays the rise in the value – the red dotted line – of euro banknotes in circulation since they were introduced in January 2002. At the end of 2010 they reached a value of €840 billion.
Chart 2 shows the rise in the number of euro banknotes in circulation – the red dotted line. At end-December 2010, 14 billion banknotes were circulating. That number also includes those stored at banks in the form of savings.
After the introduction of euro cash in 2002 the value and number of banknotes increased steadily but their growth rates gradually went down – with one exception. In October 2008 there was a distinct surge following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the worsening of the financial crisis. Many people withdrew money from their their saving accounts. As a result, the value of euro banknotes in circulation in October 2008 rose sharply by an additional €35-€40 billion.
In 2009 the situation normalised. Interestingly, the additional banknotes that came into circulation in 2008 have not yet been returned to the national central banks of the euro area. This indicates that people both inside and outside the area are keeping hold of them.
Similarly, the value and number of euro coins in circulation has also been growing steadily since 2002. At the end of 2010, 93 billion coins worth €22 billion were in circulation. The share of low-value coins (1, 2, 5 cent coins) has been steadily increasing and amounted to about 60% of all coins in circulation.
COM UM VALOR TOTAL DE 400 MIL MILHÕES DE PAPEL CIRCULANTE
QUE FORAM ENTRANDO NO SISTEMA ATÉ AO EURRO 2004
HOJE CIRCULAM OU ANDAM NOS COFRES DE DITADURAS VÁRIAS
840 MIL MILHÕES EM NOTAS
É OBRA
2013 Nov.
(p)
15,752 ,000,000 15 MIL MILHÕES DE NOTAS
579 MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE 500
195 MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE 200
1,806 MIL E OITOCENTOS MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE 100
6,646 SEIS MIL E SEISCENTOS MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE 50
2,882 DOIS MIL E OITOCENTOS MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 20
2,034 MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 10
1,609 MIL E SEISCENTOS MILHÕES DE NOTAS DE 5
QUANTO HÁ EM CIRCULAÇÃO E EM DEPÓSITOS VÁRIOS
É SÓ FAZER AS CONTAS
já fize...
289 MIL E 500 MILHÕES DE EUROS EM NOTAS DE 500
APENAS 39 MIL MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 200
180 MIL E SEISCENTOS MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 100
332 MIL E 300 MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 50
57 mil e 640 milhões em vintes
apenas 20 mil e trezentos e quarenta milhões em notas de 10
e 8 mil e trinta e cinco milhões em notas de 5
tudo somado dá 928 mil milhões e uns troikos se nã me falham as contas
e inda dizem que a massa monetária potencialmente apta pra circular não aumentou
de 840 mil milhões em 2010
para 928 mil milhões em 2013 vão
é só fazer as contas tásse…
já fize...
289 MIL E 500 MILHÕES DE EUROS EM NOTAS DE 500
APENAS 39 MIL MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 200
180 MIL E SEISCENTOS MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 100
332 MIL E 300 MILHÕES EM NOTAS DE 50
57 mil e 640 milhões em vintes
apenas 20 mil e trezentos e quarenta milhões em notas de 10
e 8 mil e trinta e cinco milhões em notas de 5
tudo somado dá 928 mil milhões e uns troikos se nã me falham as contas
e inda dizem que a massa monetária potencialmente apta pra circular não aumentou
de 840 mil milhões em 2010
para 928 mil milhões em 2013 vão
é só fazer as contas tásse…
Why the increase?
Chart 1
Value of euro banknotes in circulation between 2002 and end-2010
Source: ECB.
Chart 2
Number of euro banknotes in circulation between 2002 and end-2010
Source: ECB.
Chart 1 displays the rise in the value – the red dotted line – of euro banknotes in circulation since they were introduced in January 2002. At the end of 2010 they reached a value of €840 billion.
Chart 2 shows the rise in the number of euro banknotes in circulation – the red dotted line. At end-December 2010, 14 billion banknotes were circulating. That number also includes those stored at banks in the form of savings.
After the introduction of euro cash in 2002 the value and number of banknotes increased steadily but their growth rates gradually went down – with one exception. In October 2008 there was a distinct surge following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the worsening of the financial crisis. Many people withdrew money from their their saving accounts. As a result, the value of euro banknotes in circulation in October 2008 rose sharply by an additional €35-€40 billion.
In 2009 the situation normalised. Interestingly, the additional banknotes that came into circulation in 2008 have not yet been returned to the national central banks of the euro area. This indicates that people both inside and outside the area are keeping hold of them.
Similarly, the value and number of euro coins in circulation has also been growing steadily since 2002. At the end of 2010, 93 billion coins worth €22 billion were in circulation. The share of low-value coins (1, 2, 5 cent coins) has been steadily increasing and amounted to about 60% of all coins in circulation.
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Incidentally, if you do work with a quasi-cashless economy model, and the central bank suddenly decides to not pay interest on excess reserves even when market interest rates increase significantly above zero then that would cause high inflation since the real value of these excess reserves must be very low in that case (demand for excess reserves must be small if they don't pay competitive interest rates and we're no longer in a financial crisis). But the fed and other central banks' commitment to their inflation target suggests Janet Yellen or Mark Carney would never do such a crazy thing, and the losses on the fed's portfolio when interest rates rise have been estimated to be modest (look up a paper by Hall and Reis for some estimates).